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Final quarter of the year confirms downward predictions

09/01/2023

Year end with negative record

"I still predict a good year, with a good level of sales until September but, after that month, the market should plummet because the tractors that were to be delivered, have already been." The prediction made in May by Fernando Garcia, General Director of CNH Industrial, and other specialists could not be more accurate: the agricultural tractor registration market reaches the end of November with a negative record, when compared to the same period of last year, and will further decline in December. The scenario of uncertainty continues to be, therefore, an evidence.

After the residual positive result of October, it was already expected that November and December would bring negative numbers, although at the end of the eleventh month, the loss is only 5 tractors (0.09%) compared to January/November 2021. With the prices of agricultural raw materials registering an increase after the summer due to the high cost of fertilizers, the worsening of the weather conditions and the late effect of the increase in energy prices, and with the stock drained by the late deliveries of the last year, the scenario of uncertainty has grown, with brands waiting for an immediate reaction from the Government, so that the necessary support for the revitalization of the sector becomes effective in 2023.

The "unpredictability" of the new year, which João Pimenta, General Manager of Ascendum Agro (Valtra), told us about in the December, is here to stay, which makes life difficult not only for farmers but also for brands. The current European context - marked by the War in Ukraine, rising prices and climate change - holds farmers back when it comes to investing in machinery, and not even the growth of Solis and other brands such as Kubota, John Deer or Farmtrac prevented a decline in the market. As expected, as it had already happened in August (439), September (402) and October (478), November was the fourth month in which less than 500 tractors were registered - the latter was even below 400, with only 353 registered. -, a number that had been surpassed in each of the first seven months of 2022.

Note: We have excluded ATVs and UTVs approved under the T category and Telehandlers. | Origin: IMT / Source: ACAP

Brands
This month the decline was also felt at Solis: the Indian brand registered 27 tractors in November, a number well below the average recorded in the first ten months of the year (68), thus leaving New Holland closer. At the end of October, Solis had 29 more machines registered than the italian brand and at the end of November the advance was reduced to half (15). With 704 tractors registered at the end of November, the barrier of 800 will already be a mirage for Solis. Among the top five, the decline of New Holland (12%) and Deutz-Fahr (24%) are noted in relation to the same period of 2021, unlike John Deere and Kubota, which both have already surpassed the barrier of 500 tractors enrolled with one month to go.

Units sold by power segment
Analyzing sales by power segments, the 51-120hp range once again confirms its preponderance in the market, justified by Government support for the Renovation of the Agricultural Tractor Park – 51.58% of those registered -, with the 50hp range remaining one more time below 40%. As for the higher power segments, the 121-200hp segment is close to the 8% mark, while the category above 200hp registered only 3 tractors in November, a number well below the monthly average (7.77%) recorded until October, reaching 80 units at the end of November.


Top selling brands and models, sorted by power segments

According to data from the Instituto da Mobilidade e dos Transportes (IMT), between January and November 2022, Solis registered the most tractors and had the best-selling model: the Solis 26 4WD Stage V registered 313 units sold (at the end this month, this model represents 44.46% of the total Solis models), accounting for 133 more units than the Farmtrac 26 4WD, the second most registered model at the end of November. As for the leading brands in the different power ranges, Solis strengthened its dominance below 50hp, with 489 new tractors registered, 232 more than Kubota. In the 51-120hp range, New Holland stands out, reaching 566 registered tractors, with Kubota returning to second place, but already 266 machines behind. Regarding the higher power segments, John Deere moved away from Valtra again: in the 121-200hp range, the North American brand extended its advantage (180 against 52), while in the category above 200hp it has 33 tractors registered against 17 of the Finnish brand.


Registration of Trailers

The trailer market reached the end of November with an obvious scenario of a downturn, which was accentuated in the final quarter of the year: if at the end of October, the brands registered 55 fewer trailers compared to the same period last year, this number 'soared' to 195 after eleven months, the first four brands and five of the first six have fallen from the records. In the Top 6, the highlight goes to Massil, as it had already happened in October: from 81 trailers registered at the end of November 2021, it increased to 139 in the same period this year. Rates and Ja&ma Reboal had residual declines, while Herculano and Galucho were, respectively, the second and third brands that fell the most in comparison to January/November 2021, but they occupy the first two positions in the table of registered trailers. In total, the decline is 11.6% compared to the January/November 2021 records.



Linhai more leader in ATV's and CF Moto 'escapes' BRP in UTV's
In an analysis of the market sales for ATV's (All Terrain Vehicles) and UTV's (Multi-purpose Utility Vehicles) in the first eleven months of the year, Linhai reinforced its leadership in ATV's sales: it enrolled 61 more vehicles than in the same period last year , leaving CF Moto at roughly the same distance, even though it improved its records. In UTV's, the scenario is different: after overtaking BRP in October - there was a technical tie in August and BRP was leading in September -, CF Moto 'took off' from the competitor, now having 7 more vehicles registered than the Canadian brand , when at the end of October there were 3 more. Note on the growth of the utility vehicles market in relation to the same time last year: in ATVs, there are 20.90% more registrations and in UTVs the increase is 38.27%, although both have registered declines since August.

 

Drop in Spain reached 11.7% at the end of November 2022
The Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food released its numbers for registration of agricultural machinery in November 2022 and the numbers remain negative: a 12.82% drop compared to November 2021. As for the January-November period , the situation is not much better: by November 30, 2022, 9,089 tractors had been registered, which represents a drop of 11.7% compared to the first eleven months of 2021.

According to the Spanish magazine Profesional Agro, in self-propelled machines the drop in relation to the same period of the previous year is 2.36%, registering the most negative scenario in towed or suspended machines (-9.25%) even though the month of November was positive, and likewise in registrations of agricultural trailers, where the drop is even more pronounced (-23.42%).

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